Renewed Focus on European Deterrence
President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to outline France’s plan to extend its nuclear deterrent to support European partners, a proposal first floated in 2020 but largely ignored at the time. Macron is expected to emphasize that France’s role would complement, not compete with, the US nuclear umbrella. His speech will be delivered from the Île Longue peninsula in northwestern France, home to the nation’s four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
Since 2020, Macron has held “strategic dialogue” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other EU leaders on coordinating national nuclear doctrine, reflecting growing interest in shared European defense responsibilities.
Rising European Concerns and Strategic Shifts
The renewed focus comes amid dramatic global changes, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. These events have highlighted Europe’s vulnerability and prompted questions about the US commitment to European security.
Trump’s controversial statements on Greenland, alongside plans to partially withdraw US troops from Europe, have heightened these concerns, while Russia’s development of hypersonic weapons, China’s expanding arsenal, and uncertainties over Iran have increased the urgency for European partners to consider their own strategic options. French officials stress, however, that this initiative is intended to complement NATO, not replace it.
Maintaining a Measured Approach
France’s nuclear policy, based on “strict sufficiency,” limits the number of warheads to what is deemed necessary to deter any adversary, currently around 300 — far below the thousands held by the US and Russia. Officials emphasize that France does not seek an arms race, but rather a credible deterrent capable of inflicting unacceptable damage if needed.
Cooperation with the UK has already been strengthened through the Northwood Declaration, which includes a Nuclear Steering Group and participation in each other’s exercises. Macron’s upcoming address is expected to clarify France’s vision for a coordinated European nuclear posture without escalating tensions or duplicating NATO’s protection.
