Economic Showdowns Take Center Stage
Rising tensions between major global powers, including trade disputes, sanctions, and tariffs, are now considered the biggest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. Released ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, the report surveyed over 1,300 experts from business, government, academia, and civil society. Geoeconomic confrontation ranked above misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and even armed conflict as the top short-term risk.
Half of those surveyed expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up from 36% last year. Only a small fraction foresee stability, while a decade-long outlook predicts prolonged global instability. WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said the report “offers an early warning system” in an era where economic competition, rapid technology, and rising debt are increasing global vulnerabilities—but she stressed that none of these risks are inevitable.
Financial and Geopolitical Risks on the Rise
The report highlights that economic tensions are now the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026, with 18% of respondents flagging geoeconomic confrontation as the primary risk. Its severity ranking also jumped eight positions from last year. Rising rivalries, trade wars, and protracted conflicts threaten supply chains, economic stability, and international cooperation.
The past year’s trade policies, including President Trump’s wide-reaching tariffs, have disrupted global commerce and put pressure on businesses and consumers worldwide. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents predict a more multipolar or fragmented global order over the next decade. Economic risks overall are climbing, with inflation, recession, and the possibility of asset bubbles among the top concerns. Rising debt and financial instability, combined with geopolitical friction, could trigger further market volatility.
Technology, Society, and the Environment Loom Large
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation ranked as the second-highest short-term risk, with cyber insecurity also a major concern. Over the next decade, worries about artificial intelligence surged, climbing from 30th to 5th, reflecting fears about AI’s impact on jobs, security, and social stability. Societal polarisation and inequality also remain significant threats, while environmental risks—though temporarily lower in the two-year outlook—dominate long-term concerns. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems are expected to have severe impacts, with three-quarters of respondents predicting a turbulent environmental future.
Zahidi concluded that global cooperation is crucial: “The challenges highlighted—spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks—underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
